Sims: More back-to-back hurricanes

What used to be a rare one-two punch of back-to-back hurricanes hitting around the same located in the U.S. weeks apart seems to be happening more often, according to a Princeton University study that says climate change will make dual storms more frequent in the future. Using computer simulations (sims), Princeton scientists calculated that the deadly storm duo that used to happen every few decades could happen every two or three years as the world warms, according to that study published in Nature Climate Change. Louisiana and Florida residents have already felt it. In 2021, major Hurricane Ida blasted Louisiana with 150 mph winds. Fifteen 15 days later a weaker Nicholas came nearby, to add to the problems, says study co-author Ning Lin, a risk engineer and climate scientist. The study looked at storms and the problems of back-to-back hurricanes on people. Louisiana was hit in 2020 by five hurricanes or tropical storms with the strongest packing 150-mph winds. In 2004, Florida had four hurricanes in six weeks, prompting the NOAA to take note of a new nickname for the Sunshine State - “The Plywood State,” from all the boarded-up homes. “We found a trend,” Lin said. "They’re happening more often now than before." But there’s a caveat to that trend. There haven’t been enough hurricanes and tropical storms since 1950 for a statistically significant trend, Lin said, but her team added computer simulations to see if they could establish such a trend and they did. The team looked at nine U.S. storm-prone areas and found an increase in storm hazards for seven since 1949. Only Charleston, S.C., and Pensacola, Fla., didn’t see hazards increase. Using a worst-case scenario of increasing carbon dioxide emissions and a more moderate scenario both situations - the frequency of back-to-back storms - increased dramatically from current expectations. The reason is based on storms getting wetter and stronger from climate change and rising seas. However, studies are split on whether climate change means more or fewer storms overall. (The AP 02/26/23) Study: Back-to-back hurricanes likely to come more often (wlox.com)