Thursday, April 2, 2020

NWC's pandemic war game

Scenario: An infectious disease breaks out in a densely populated metropolitan area and spreads rapidly causing respiratory failure and death. As local containment/response breaks down, cases multiply. This scenario is not a condensed narrative of the current COVID-19 pandemic. It's the premise of a war game run in September 2019 by the Naval War College (NWC) in Newport, R.I. Its findings - released in summary April 1 - reveal prescient and sometimes troubling parallels to the real-world today. The game was entitled Called Urban Outbreak 2019. Some of its conclusions: A forced mass quarantine can backfire and trigger the spread of more disease; and how the mortality rate is better than the overall number of disease cases in assessing the scale of an outbreak. Other insights specific to the military's response also hit home. (Source: Military.com 04/01/20) https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/01/naval-war-college-ran-pandemic-war-game-2019-conclusions-were-eerie.html

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